Trump just did what every president since Reagan refused to do – he took out Iran's nuclear program.
Now the war with Iran is sending jet fuel prices through the roof – and the airline industry is already passing the bill to you.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the impact on your airfare would "probably start quick" – and experts say the window to lock in a good price is closing right now.
The Strait of Hormuz Just Became Your Airline Ticket Problem
The Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf – is effectively shut down because of the war.
That one chokepoint carries roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day.
With war-risk insurance pulled from oil tankers and missiles flying across the region, ships can't move safely through the corridor.
No oil moving means no jet fuel reaching the world's airports.
Jet fuel prices were running between $85 and $90 per barrel before Trump and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.
By early March they had soared to between $150 and $200 per barrel – more than double – with Air New Zealand suspending its entire 2026 financial outlook because of the uncertainty.
At the U.S. Gulf Coast, jet fuel hit $4.12 per gallon – the highest in nearly four years.
Fuel accounts for roughly one-fifth of airline operating costs, making even short spikes devastating on margins that average just 3.9 percent globally.
A Skift Research analysis puts the total hit to U.S. airlines at $24 billion in additional fuel costs – and estimates ticket prices need to rise at least 11 percent just to break even.
American Airlines Has No Hedge and Nowhere to Hide
European airlines like Ryanair locked in fuel contracts well before the war.
American carriers locked in nothing.
Delta, United, American Airlines, and Alaska Air have all abandoned fuel hedging in recent years – a decision that looks catastrophic right now.
With no hedges protecting them, U.S. airlines have one option: raise your fares.
Deutsche Bank data shows American airfares already climbing, with both last-minute and advance-purchase tickets surging over the past week.
Travel industry analyst Henry Harteveldt confirmed airlines began raising fares the same week jet fuel prices started spiking – with premium cabin tickets hit hardest first.
James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at market research firm Sparta, warned that shortages could mean flight cancellations due to lack of jet fuel altogether – weeks away, not months.
United CEO Kirby told reporters he expected the impact to start "within a week."
That week is here.
If you have summer trips planned, experts say book now.
Most major airlines allow free changes on non-basic-economy tickets – so lock in today's price and reprice later if costs drop.
Democrats Blame Trump for the Bill Iran Sent
Democrats are counting on you to feel the pain at the pump and forget why it happened.
Don't.
Trump made the call no one else would make – and the price of dismantling a nuclear program that threatened Israel and every American city within missile range is a few weeks of higher fuel costs.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it plainly: weeks, not months.
The same Democrats screaming about airfare today spent four years begging you to ignore an Iran that was 90 percent of the way to a nuclear weapon.
They don't get to lecture you about prices.
This is the same playbook from every Middle East crisis since 1990.
When Iraq invaded Kuwait, jet fuel spiked from roughly 60 cents a gallon to nearly $1.50 at its peak.
Airlines posted record losses.
Pan Am went bankrupt in 1991.
Eastern Airlines folded.
Continental filed for Chapter 11.
The Gulf War cost the airline industry billions and recovery took three years – and that conflict was a fraction of the scale of neutralizing Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Trump knew the price spike was coming.
He said so directly: "I knew oil prices would go up if I did this."
The question isn't whether prices will recover – they will.
The question is whether you remember who made the hard call while Democrats held press conferences and counted on you to forget.
Sources:
- Sean Cudahy, "Airfare is rising: Why you should book summer flights now," The Points Guy, March 10, 2026.
- "United Airlines CEO said U.S. airfares could soon rise as Iran war drives up oil prices," CBS News, March 6, 2026.
- "Oil Price Shock Could Mean 10%+ Fare Hike, $24 Billion in Costs for U.S. Airlines," Skift Research, March 9, 2026.
- Ashley J. DiMella, "Airlines may cut flight schedules as Iran tensions drive up fuel costs, experts warn," Fox News, March 11, 2026.
- "Airlines hike ticket prices as Iran war propels fuel costs," Globe and Mail, March 10, 2026.