Polls show a tight race if Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off again next year.
But Trump could hold one big advantage.
And that’s because Joe Biden faced this surprising defection that could guarantee Trump wins in 2024.
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump stunned all the so-called “experts” by winning the highest share of the nonwhite vote by any Republican Presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 2020.
Despite four years of a smear campaign lying about Trump being a racist, nonwhite voters saw that Trump’s policies to secure the border, promote law and order, and push to keep the economy open during COVID were more powerful than the usual Democrat Party lies about Republicans being racists.
The realignment in American politics along education and class lines continued apace under Joe Biden, and it now threatens to upend the convention wisdom about the 2024 race.
New York Times pollster Nate Cohen’s latest analysis examined the deterioration in nonwhite voter support for Joe Biden and how it threatened his reelection chances.
Cohen wrote that in New York Times/Siena polls taken over the course of 2022 and 2023 “Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by just 53 percent to 28 percent among registered non-white voters in a compilation of Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023, which includes over 1,500 non-white respondents.”
That was a sharp drop from the 36-point margin Biden racked up with nonwhite voters in 2020.
“The results represent a marked deterioration in Mr. Biden’s support compared with 2020, when he won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters,” Cohen added.
Cohen added that Biden’s support from “virtually every demographic category and racial group, including a 72-11 lead among Black voters and a 47-35.”
The New York Times/Siena polls were not an aberration as their results matched those by 12 other top pollsters over the course of the last year as they all showed Trump gaining ground with nonwhite voters.
“On average, he leads by 74-19 among Black voters and by 50-40 among Hispanic voters across 12 high-quality national surveys so far this year,” Cohen added.
The big shift came among voters who earned less than $100,000 per year.
Nonwhite working-class voters used to be the bedrock of the Democrat Party coalition.
But as the Democrat Party becomes the party of woke, white college educated professionals, those voters are moving away from the Democrats as more nonwhite voters shifted their support from Biden to Trump than Trump to Biden.
“The survey finds evidence that a modest but important 5 percent of nonwhite Biden voters now support Mr. Trump, including 8 percent of Hispanic voters who say they backed Mr. Biden in 2020. Virtually no nonwhite voters who say they supported Mr. Trump — just 1 percent — say they will back Mr. Biden this time around,” Cohen continued.
Finally, Cohen wrote the big problem for Biden and the Democrats is apathy.
Voters choosing to stay home rather than vote for Biden or Trump could spell doom for Biden in 2024.
“Overall, Mr. Biden leads by 81-8 among Black voters who turned out in 2022, but by just 62-14 among those who skipped the midterm elections. Similarly, he leads by 53-33 among Hispanics who voted in the midterms, compared with just a 42-37 lead among those who did not vote,” Cohen stated.
Donald Trump’s base is going to turn out in 2024.
But Biden only won the Electoral College by 44,000 votes across three states.
If Biden’s vote total drops at all from the 81,000,000 in 2020, that will likely hand Trump the Presidency.