James Carville was so certain Kamala Harris would win that he put it in the New York Times.
Donald Trump beat her by the largest Republican margin in a generation.
But now James Carville has a new theory about what Trump is secretly up to – and it's even more detached from reality.
The Man Who Said Harris Would Win Now Says Trump Wants to Lose
The theory goes like this: Trump secretly hates the Republican Party, wants them destroyed in November, and is deliberately sabotaging their chances to "teach them a lesson."
"The only answer that I can come up with that explains the current behavior of Donald Trump is simply this: He wants the Republicans to lose," Carville told journalist Al Hunt on their podcast Tuesday.
"He hates them. He wants to torture them," he added.
Let that sentence sit for a moment.
https://twitter.com/washington_EY/status/2097320299079598338?s=20
The man who wrote a 2009 book called 40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation – at a time when Democrats currently hold no levers of federal power – is now the expert on Donald Trump's psychology.
Carville's evidence for the "Trump wants to lose" theory: Trump dismissed public concerns about artificial intelligence.
That's it.
That's the conspiracy.
Trump Was in Dallas Last Night Doing the Opposite of Trying to Lose
While Carville was podcasting his theory, Trump was on stage at the Republican National Committee's first-ever midterm convention in Dallas – promising every American adult a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if Republicans keep Congress.
He defended the Iran war directly, telling the crowd he struck because Iran was one month away from a nuclear weapon.
He called Democrat socialists "communists" and said the Democrat establishment has been "overthrown" in state after state by radical leftists.
He told supporters – at a prior rally, not just Dallas – to pretend he was personally on the ballot.
https://twitter.com/MarcoFoster_/status/2098067235625398547?s=20
A president sabotaging his own party does not go to Dallas and promise five thousand dollars to every voter who sends him a Republican Congress.
Carville knows this.
The Real Reason Carville Is Saying This
Here is what's actually happening.
Democrats have a 68 percent chance to take the House, according to Decision Desk HQ as of Tuesday.
Carville has spent this entire year predicting a Republican wipeout – 25 seats at minimum, maybe 45, Senate likely flips.
If the Democrats win big in November, Carville needs an explanation that makes Trump look like the villain instead of the Democrats looking like the winners.
"Trump wanted to lose" is that explanation.
It's pre-built spin for the morning of November 4.
If Republicans hold on, Carville will say Trump got lucky.
If Democrats win, Carville will say Trump threw it.
Either way, Carville has a take ready.
This is what 81-year-old Democrat strategists do when they can't predict outcomes but still need cable television bookings.
Trump Went to Dallas and Made His Case Directly
Trump did not send a surrogate to handle the hard questions in Dallas.
He stood on that stage and told the crowd that Iran was one month from a nuclear weapon – and that stopping it was worth whatever it cost at the pump.
https://twitter.com/mouvement33/status/2092477687780749683?s=20
He knows the headwinds are real.
He went anyway and made the argument himself in front of thousands of people while James Carville recorded a podcast and built his alibi.
Democrats need to flip three House seats and four Senate seats for full control.
If Republicans hold on in November, it will be because Trump showed up.
And James Carville will need an entirely new theory to explain why his predicted wipeout never came.
He admitted earlier this year that he is "not a very good predictor of elections."
At least he's finally right about something.
Sources:
- Max Rego, "Carville Claims Trump 'Wants to Torture' GOP Ahead of Midterms," The Hill, September 8, 2026.
- "Trump Makes Stunning First-of-Its-Kind Cash Promise in Bid to Rally GOP Voters at Dallas Midterm Convention," Fox News, September 9, 2026.
- "James Carville Predicts Republican Wipeout in 2026 Midterms," The Hill, January 18, 2026.
- "Top Dem Strategist James Carville Admits Prediction Failures," National Today, March 15, 2026.
- "RNC Chair Pushes Back After Carville Predicts GOP Wipeout," Fox News, January 17, 2026.