John Cornyn spent nearly $100 million trying to bury Ken Paxton – and it still wasn't enough.
Now Texans get to finish the job Cornyn's money couldn't.
The May 26 runoff is the race the Republican establishment has been dreading for a year.
How Cornyn Spent $78 Million and Still Lost the Texas Senate Primary
Cornyn and his allied super PACs poured $78.5 million into advertising during the primary – more than any Senate primary in American history. They ran ads calling Paxton "weird." They dug up every impeachment allegation, every affair rumor, every securities fraud charge going back to 2015.
Paxton spent $4.4 million.
When the dust settled Tuesday night, Cornyn finished first at roughly 43% and Paxton came in at roughly 40%. No knockout. No mercy blow. A man outspent by more than 17-to-1 still nearly pulled off an outright win.
At his watch party in Dallas, Paxton didn't sound like a man who just lost.
"While the money may be on his side, the people are on our side," Paxton told supporters. "And in Texas, the people always win."
Prominent Republican donor and Paxton backer Dan Eberhart summed up the night bluntly: "This was Cornyn's shot to fend off his challenger by getting over 50% and he couldn't do it."
Now Cornyn heads into a runoff – historically dominated by hardcore conservative voters – against a man his own campaign couldn't eliminate with unlimited cash.
Why Ken Paxton Enters the May 26 Runoff as the Favorite
Runoffs in Texas Republican primaries are not like general elections. The casual voter stays home. The base decides.
That base built Paxton's lead in the first place.
When Paxton entered the race last April, he immediately led Cornyn in polling by double digits. Cornyn's spending blitz narrowed that gap – but it never reversed it. The same conservative voters who elected Paxton to three consecutive statewide terms are the same voters who dominate a May runoff.
Add in one more factor: Wesley Hunt's voters.
Hunt – the Houston congressman who finished third at roughly 13% – positioned himself throughout the race as a younger, more conservative alternative to both men. He called Cornyn a "Bush RINO." He aligned himself with Trump's agenda. His voters did not come to the primary to send John Cornyn back to Washington.
Emerson College Polling Director Matt Taglia put it plainly before the election: "The runoff is going to be tough because those Hunt voters look a little bit more like Paxton voters."
Cornyn is now in a race where his money advantage shrinks, his electability argument evaporates, and every voter walking in the door arrives skeptical that he's truly MAGA.
What Trump's Endorsement Decision Means for the Texas Senate Runoff
The biggest wildcard walking into May is an endorsement that hasn't happened yet.
Trump declined to endorse in the primary, telling crowds in Corpus Christi he supports "all three." That neutrality was read by many establishment Republicans as an implicit signal to rally behind Cornyn – the safer, more electable choice.
It wasn't.
Trump's silence in this primary was not a gift to Cornyn. It was a message that the president isn't willing to spend political capital saving a senator he once called a "RINO" for backing a bipartisan gun bill.
If Trump endorses Paxton in the runoff – and sources familiar with his thinking say he is unlikely to weigh in at all – it ends the race immediately. If Trump stays neutral, Paxton's base advantage carries the day in a low-turnout runoff.
Either scenario is good for Paxton. Neither scenario is good for Cornyn.
Texas Is Not For Sale and Paxton Just Proved It
What Tuesday night actually proved is that the Republican establishment cannot buy its way out of a base revolt.
Cornyn spent more money in a single Senate primary than most candidates spend in an entire career. He had the full weight of the National Republican Senatorial Committee behind him. He had Washington's blessing, D.C.'s money, and a decade of incumbency.
Paxton had a MAGA record and $4.4 million.
The establishment's argument from the start has been electability – that Paxton's impeachment trial, his affair, his securities fraud history, and his ongoing divorce make him a liability in November against Democrat James Talarico, the state representative now locked in to challenge whoever emerges from the GOP runoff.
That argument might matter more if Texas were a competitive state. It isn't. Republicans have won every Senate race in Texas since 1990.
What actually matters in May is simple: Texas conservatives want someone in the Senate who fights like Paxton fought as attorney general – filing his 100th lawsuit against the Biden administration's open border agenda, taking on Democratic presidents at every turn, and delivering the kind of MAGA credibility that no amount of ad spending can manufacture.
Cornyn voted with Trump 99% of the time. Paxton spent ten years doing what Trump does – taking on the establishment, surviving every attack, and winning anyway.
Texas Republicans will decide which one of those actually sounds like them.
Sources:
- Paul Steinhauser, "Paxton, Cornyn head to Texas GOP runoff after Wesley Hunt finishes third," Fox News, March 4, 2026.
- Anders Hagstrom, "Texas GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt vows political comeback," Fox News, March 4, 2026.
- Gabby Birenbaum, "Cornyn, Paxton advance to GOP runoff for Senate," Texas Tribune, March 3, 2026.
- Andrew Schneider, "John Cornyn leads Ken Paxton as GOP Senate primary heads to runoff," Houston Public Media, March 3, 2026.
- Staff, "Paxton forces runoff against Cornyn in Texas Republican Senate Primary," KXAN, March 4, 2026.