Kamala Harris thought the political winds were at her back.
But she found out there was no smooth sailing ahead.
And a warning sign was flashing red for Kamala Harris in one must-win state.
Key demographic could be a problem for Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is shaping up to be a must-win swing state for Vice President Kamala Harris.
If former President Donald Trump can win the three Sun Belt swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona – where he currently leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average – then her only path to victory would include Pennsylvania.
The state is attracting the most money and attention from both Presidential candidates.
A new poll from Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for the AARP found that Kamala was leading Trump 49% to 47% with 3% undecided.
Normally, a poll showing Kamala leading would be good news, but underneath the hood, there’s a warning sign for her.
She’s losing seniors aged 65 or older in the poll by 7%.
President Joe Biden was only losing seniors by a single point when the poll was conducted in April.
Kamala increased her support with young voters compared to Biden, but they have the lowest turnout of any demographic.
Seniors are the most reliable group of voters in the country.
“Harris’ biggest weakness is older voters,” Republican pollster Bob Ward of Fabrizio Ward told Politico. “It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind.”
The biggest issue driving seniors into Trump’s camp is the cost of living.
Trump had a staggering 54% lead with voters over the age of 50 who had inflation or high prices as their most important issue in the poll.
Voters can have an easy comparison between Trump and Kamala
Impact Research pollster Jeffrey Liszt, a Democrat, said that voters like the Trump economy and that’s a problem for Kamala.
“It’s been a core strength of Donald Trump’s that he’s got this branding around being a businessman and having been on The Apprentice,” Liszt said. “When you look back at the job that people think that he did, his job rating is better than hers. And again, that’s her core vulnerability and his core strength.”
50% of voters in the poll approved of the job Trump did while President.
Ward said that Trump had the ability to grow his support in Pennsylvania.
He noted that if the former President “could expand his margins among older voters, particularly older women, he’s got a good chance to pull ahead in this race.”
And those could be the voters that decide Pennsylvania, according to the poll.
Liszt said that older voters are significantly more excited to vote this year than their younger counterparts.
“You’ve got a big gap still in Pennsylvania and motivation to turn out between voters under age 50 and voters over age 50,” Liszt explained. “91% of voters 50-plus are saying that they are extremely motivated to vote versus 71% of voters 18 to 49.”
The poll also found U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) leading 49% to 45% over his Republican challenger Dave McCormick.
Seniors could be Donald Trump’s ticket to victory in Pennsylvania.
