The 2024 election may have the biggest plot twist yet in store.
Democrats were caught flatfooted.
And Donald Trump has one Electoral College ace in the hole that will doom Kamala Harris.
A push to make Nebraska winner take all
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in America that divide up their Electoral College votes by Congressional District.
That means that even though Nebraska is a ruby red state, Democrats can win a vital Electoral College vote if they carry the Second Congressional District, which includes Omaha.
To get a sense of how vital that is, if Kamala Harris holds the three “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and wins the Omaha Congressional District, she will hit the 270 Electoral College votes she needs even if she loses every other swing state.
But now there is a renewed push in Nebraska by Governor Jim Pillen to pass legislation making Nebraska a winner-take-all state in the Electoral College.
That’s because if Nebraska goes to winner take all and Kamala Harris wins all the blue wall states but loses Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, the Electoral College ends in a 269-269 tie.
At that point the House of Representatives votes by state delegation, a vote that Trump would win since Republicans control more state delegations.
Governor Pillen’s meeting with key state legislators showed holdouts softening their opposition.
“Some saw a shift in State Sen. Mike McDonnell of Omaha, a former Omaha fire union leader who said when he switched from Democrat to Republican earlier this year that he would never support winner-take-all,” the Nebraska Examiner reported.
“Five people attending the meeting confirmed that McDonnell told the group he was looking for a way to get to yes, though he expressed concerns,” the Nebraska Examiner continued.
Democrats caught off guard
The original thinking was that if Nebraska went winner-take-all then Democrat-run Maine would as well since Republicans win an Electoral College vote by carrying the very rural Maine Second Congressional District.
Maine matching Nebraska would mean no one gets an advantage.
But a quirk in the Maine Constitution means Maine’s Democrat legislature doesn’t have enough time to act.
Democratic House Majority Leader Maureen Terry lamented that fact in the press.
“But under Maine’s constitution, a bill can only become a law 90 days after it’s passed. There are 46 days until the November 5 election and 87 days until electoral votes are set to be cast. Democrats could circumvent the 90-day window if they have a two-thirds vote in each chamber. But they don’t have that,” The Bulwark exclusively reported.
“So who knows where that lands us,” Democratic House Majority Leader Maureen Terry told The Bulwark. “We haven’t had any discussions with any of our Republicans.”
It’s not often that Democrats get caught asleep at the switch.
But this is one time.
